Data 140: Probability for Data Science

UC Berkeley, Spring 2025

Week 13

Apr 21

Calendar

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Week 1: Introduction

Jan 20
Holiday
Jan 21
Guide Week 1
Lecture Probability: axioms, rules, approximation
Course Information, Ch 1, 2
Homework Homework 1
Due Jan 27 at 5 PM
Lab Lab 1
Due Jan 27 at 5 PM
Jan 22
Section
Jan 23
Lecture Random variables: distributions, equality, conditioning
Ch 3, 4
Jan 24
Mega-Section

Week 2: Symmetry and Random Counts

Jan 27
Guide Week 2
Homework Homework 2
Due Feb 3 at 5 PM
Lab Lab 2
Due Feb 3 at 5 PM
Jan 28
Lecture Symmetry and collections of events
Ch 5
Jan 29
Section
Jan 30
Lecture Binomial and related counts; a Poisson limit
Ch 6
Jan 31
Mega-Section

Week 3: Poissonization and Expectation

Feb 3
Guide Week 3
Homework Homework 3
Due Feb 10 at 5 PM
Lab Lab 3A
Due Feb 10 at 5 PM
Feb 4
Lecture Independence and Poissonization
Ch 7
Feb 5
Section
Feb 6
Lecture Expectation
Ch 8.1 - 8.3
Feb 7
Mega-Section

Week 4: Expectation and Conditioning

Feb 10
Guide Week 4
Homework Homework 4
Due Feb 18 at 12 PM noon
Lab Lab 3B
Due Feb 18 at 12 PM noon
Feb 11
Lecture Expectation and additivity
Ch 8.4 - 8.5
Feb 12
Section
Feb 13
Lecture Expectation by conditioning
Ch 9
Feb 14
Mega-Section

Week 5: Markov Chains

Feb 17
Holiday
Feb 18
Guide Week 5
Homework Homework 5
Due Feb 24 at 5 PM
Lecture Long run behavior of Markov chains
Ch 10
Feb 19
Exam Midterm 1
8PM - 10PM
Feb 20
Lecture Balance
Ch 10, 11.1
Feb 21
Mega-Section

Week 6: MCMC and Variance

Feb 24
Guide Week 6
Homework Homework 6
Due Mar 3 at 5 PM
Lab Lab 4
Due Mar 3 at 5 PM
Feb 25
Lecture Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Ch 11.2 - 11.3
Feb 26
Section
Feb 27
Lecture Standard deviation and tail bounds
Ch 12
Feb 28
Mega-Section

Week 7: Covariance and CLT

Mar 3
Guide Week 7
Homework Homework 7
Due Mar 10 at 5 PM
Lab Lab 5
Due Mar 10 at 5 PM
Mar 4
Lecture Covariance and its uses
Ch 13
Mar 5
Section
Mar 6
Lecture Central Limit Theorem
Ch 14
Mar 7
Mega-Section

Week 8: Densities and Transformations

Mar 10
Guide Week 8
Homework Homework 8
Due Mar 17 at 5 PM
Lab Lab 6A
Due Mar 17 at 5 PM
Mar 11
Lecture Probability densities
Ch 15
Mar 12
Section
Mar 13
Lecture Transformations
Ch 16
Mar 14
Mega-Section

Week 9: Joint Densities, Beta, Normal, and Gamma Families

Mar 17
Guide Week 9
Homework Homework 9
Due Mar 31 at 5 PM
Lab Lab 6B
Due Mar 31 at 5 PM
Mar 18
Lecture Joint densities
Ch 17
Mar 19
Section
Mar 20
Lecture Joint distributions; sums of normal and gamma variables
Ch 17, Ch 18
Mar 21
Mega-Section

Spring Break

Mar 24
Spring Break
Mar 25
Spring Break
Mar 26
Spring Break
Mar 27
Spring Break
Mar 28
Spring Break

Week 10: MGFs

Mar 31
Guide Week 10
Homework Homework 10
Due Apr 7 at 5 PM
Lab Lab 7A
Due Apr 7 at 5 PM
Apr 1
Lecture Moment generating functions
Ch 19
Apr 2
Exam Midterm 2
8PM - 10PM
Apr 3
Lecture Moment generating functions; Chernoff bound
Ch 19
Apr 4
Mega-Section

Week 11: MLE, MAP, the Beta and the Binomial

Apr 7
Guide Week 11
Homework Homework 11
Due Apr 14 at 5 PM
Lab Lab 7B
Due Apr 14 at 5 PM
Apr 8
Lecture MLE; conditioning; MAP estimates
Ch 20
Apr 9
Section
Apr 10
Lecture The beta and the binomial
Ch 21
Apr 11
Mega-Section

Week 12: Prediction and Error

Apr 14
Guide Week 12
Homework Homework 12
Due Apr 21 at 5 PM
Lab Lab 8
Due Apr 21 at 5 PM
Apr 15
Lecture Prediction and error
Ch 22.1 - 22.2
Apr 16
Section
Apr 17
Lecture Variance by conditioning
Ch 22.3 - 22.4
Apr 18
Mega-Section

Week 13: Random Vectors and Simple Regression

Apr 21
Guide Week 13
Homework Homework 13
Due Apr 28 at 5 PM
Apr 22
Lecture Random vectors; the multivariate normal
Ch 23
Apr 23
Section
Apr 24
Lecture Correlation and simple regression
Ch 24
Apr 25
Mega-Section

Week 14: Multiple Regression

Apr 28
Apr 29
Lecture Multiple regression I
Ch 25.1 - 25.3
Apr 30
Section
May 1
Lecture Multiple regression II
Ch 25.4
May 2
Mega-Section

Week 15: Reading, Review, Recitation

May 5
RRR Week
May 6
RRR Week
May 7
RRR Week
May 8
RRR Week
May 9
RRR Week

Week 16: Final Exams

May 12
Exam Final Exam
11:30AM - 2:30PM